The VMAs’ lifetime achievement award — which has also come with a career-spanning medley performance in recent years — most recently went to Nicki Minaj.

Not many non-technical awards given out at the first-ever MTV Video Music Awards in 1984 — which included such now-defunct categories as best stage performance in a video and most experimental video — are still around in any form nearly three decades later. But the Video Vanguard, a lifetime achievement honor awarded to an artist for their “outstanding contributions and profound impact on music video and popular culture,” has not only survived, it’s arguably come to rival video of the year as the most anticipated award of the night.

While not given out consistently — many years were skipped in the ’90s and ’00s, as well as the COVID-stricken first two years of the 2020s — the award (officially named the Michael Jackson Video Vanguard in 1991) has evolved from the ’80s, when it was given out to directors and technicians as well as artists (often in the same year), to the past decade, where it has come to be a solo artist-specific honor. Starting with Justin Timberlake in 2013, the award has also come to be accompanied by an extended performance from the recipient, usually featuring a career-spanning medley of hits.

Last year, Nicki Minaj became the 26th recording artist to win the award, a list of performers that dates back to The Beatles and David Bowie at the first-ever VMAs, and also includes such legendary names as Janet Jackson, Madonna, U2, Britney Spears, Beyoncé, Ye and Rihanna. Before Minaj, the most recent inductee was Missy Elliott in 2019, after an online movement that criticized the channel for not rewarding her previously gained viral momentum. Outside of the Video Vanguard award, other artists who have received career-saluting honors from the VMAs this decade include Lady Gaga (recipient of the “Tricon” award in 2020), Foo Fighters and Red Hot Chili Peppers (both named “Global Icon,” in 2021 and 2022, respectively).

With Billboard having confirmed that the award will be handed out again in 2023, we figured it was a good time to look into some of the viable candidates for this year’s honors. From least likely to most likely, here’s how we break down the best options.

Additional reporting by Paul Grein.

Why Her? When music videos experienced a cultural revival in the booming pop years of the late ’00s and early ’10s, Perry’s clips were very much at the forefront: colorful, playful, eye-popping visuals that helped make her a superstar and an MTV icon of the times — as well as a video of the year winner in 2011 for “Firework.”

But Maybe Not: Perry’s cultural capital isn’t exactly at its height in 2023, and while pop fans remain nostalgic for her imperial phase, there were also some clips in there they might not be so keen to revisit.

Likelihood: Low

Why Him? Lamar has consistently proven himself one of the most vital and creative music video artists of the past decade — with a VMAs history that includes both the most explosive performance of the 2017 awards and a video of the year win that same night for his “Humble.”

But Maybe Not: Anyone seen Mr. Morale on MTV recently? Probably not, since he hasn’t performed or made a major appearance at the awards since those 2017 ceremonies — not even last year, when he was a seven-time nominee — suggesting his career priorities may currently lie elsewhere. And with the Mr. Morale album cycle and accompanying tour dates officially wrapping soon, there’s not much for him left to promote at the moment.

Likelihood: Low.

Why Him? Few pop artists of the past decade have been as successful — or as invested in their own success — as The Weeknd. He’s a three-time video of the year nominee at the VMAs, including a win for his world-conquering “Blinding Lights” in 2020, and he’s proven his live bonafides on some pretty big stages already.

But Maybe Not: As many wins as he’s had this decade, The Weeknd’s had some losses to match — and the combination has left him a little too overexposed of late for another career-spanning performance to garner a ton of excitement in 2023.

Likelihood: Low to medium.

Why Her? Grande’s been an MTV fixture for a decade, with three video of the year nominations (though no wins to date), and a consistent commitment to high-quality music videos. And unlike her just-mentioned frequent duet partner, Grande has been mostly absent from the spotlight the last couple years, which would make this a perfect time for a reintroduction.

But Maybe Not: Whether she actually wants any such reintroduction right now remains to be seen — there’s no announced plans for new music, and with a high-profile breakup (and higher-profile return to the dating world) dominating the headlines recently, she may not be up for taking such a big stage right now.

Likelihood: Low to medium.

Why Them? A still-beloved pop act with plenty of hits new and old to their credit, the JoBros would undoubtedly still bring a sizeable number of eyeballs to a Video Vanguard performance — and given that they have an ambitious, career-spanning run of arena and stadium dates this year to promote, they’d certainly have reason to remind those fans they can still bring it live. (And this year’s awards are once again being held at the Prudential Center, in their home state of New Jersey.)

But Maybe Not: While they had popular videos that got airplay on MTV, it’s still a distant second when it comes to TV networks the now-man band is associated with — and it might be a little too jarring for the channel to pretend otherwise.

Likelihood: Medium.

Why Him? No one has seemed as home at award shows over the last decade-plus — whether as a performer or nominee — as Bruno Mars, a five-time video of the year nominee who has basically been on a career-long winning streak, and who could probably whip together a convincing career-spanning hits medley with 15 minutes prep time (and no microphone).

But Maybe Not: Mars might not have much to promote outside of some upcoming international dates by the time of this September’s VMAs, with the most recent leg of his Vegas residency wrapping later this month.

Likelihood: Medium.

Why Her? Gomez has a solid 15-plus years of hits to her credit — including one of 2023’s biggest, with her appearance on the global smash remix to Rema’s “Calm Down” — and has been teasing plans for new music for much of 2023, possibly portending her first new album since 2020’s Rare.

But Maybe Not: She also has those tough-to-shed Disney associations, and award show stages have not always been particularly kind to her.

Likelihood: Medium.

Why Him? He’s got an ongoing tour (and possibly, soon enough, a new album) to promote, and he’s got more hits over the past 15 years than pretty much anyone — including six video of the year nominations (though somewhat incredibly, no wins yet). Frequent collaborators Rihanna and Nicki Minaj have already been honored, with Drake himself even presenting the former; this year may be The Boy’s turn to receive.

But Maybe Not: Drake has had an increasingly tenuous relationship with award shows in recent years, and his in-person presence at the VMAs has been rather minimal since those Rihanna honors in 2016. The timing may never be better, but it’s possible the show just doesn’t have the juice to attract Drake’s interest anymore.

Likelihood: Medium to high.

Why Her? It feels like the timing is right: Cyrus has been a steady presence at the VMAs for over a decade now, winning video of the year for “Wrecking Ball” in 2014, hosting (and announcing a surprise album during) the next year’s ceremonies and performing several times since then. And after scoring a Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 this year with “Flowers,” she’s the hottest she’s been since that mid-’10s peak.

But Maybe Not: Cyrus opted not to tour behind “Flowers” parent album Endless Summer Vacation — which she explained was more about the rigors of the touring lifestyle than a declining interest in live performance, but may mean she has less to promote than some other artists. (Also, the Disney thing, though Cyrus shed those associations much quicker and more thoroughly than most of her then-peers.)

Likelihood: High.

Why Her? Does this really require an explanation? Taylor Swift is the biggest pop star in the world right now, and unlike most artists at (or rather, just below) her level, she’s always had time for the VMAs — even showing up last year to accept video of the year for All Too Well: The Short Film and announce that her Midnights album was coming soon. There even just so happens to be a scheduled break in her Eras Tour for this September — and while no one one would blame her for using that whole month for catch-up sleep, the chance for a victory lap performance at the VMAs to put a cap on her year might be too great for her to pass up.

But Maybe Not: How much Taylor Swift is too much Taylor Swift? If we ever do find out, it probably won’t be by this September 12, anyway.

Likelihood: Very good.