Often the Grammy for Best New Artist can be quite obvious going into nominations, with one clear standout among that year’s debutantes. That was the case in the years when Olivia Rodrigo and Billie Eilish won. Both were clearly ahead of their competition in terms of popularity and acclaim. It’s been a while since we’ve had a genuine race for the award between two strong contenders with almost equal chances to win, but this year is starting to look like a solid race between alt-pop singer Chappell Roan and chart-topper Sabrina Carpenter. Let’s consider each.

Carpenter is not really a new artist, having released five studio albums since 2015, but her breakout was undeniable this year with her hits “Feather,” “Espresso” and “Please Please Please.” The latter two of those reached the top three on the Billboard Hot 100, with “Please” hitting number-one. This success is substantial; Carpenter is one of the few artists this year — maybe the only one — to score two hits this big. Indeed, the case for her winning the Grammy, assuming she gets past the screening committee, is that she is commercially dominant, but she’s also very accessible to pop voters. Plus, this category does tend to skew commercial, with most winners being the most successful artists in their lineups. Carpenter has also been touring with Taylor Swift, so that’s an added bonus in terms of visibility. Carpenter is also slated to release her newest album, “Short n’ Sweet,” on August 23, which will probably be a success given how the singles have been received.

As for Roan, she isn’t quite as commercially prominent as Carpenter — at least, not yet. Still, considering that her growth has been more organic, rising steadily up the charts due to increased exposure and word-of-mouth, a lot of voters might prefer her rise. Plus, while both had their breakthroughs in 2024, Roan’s might be a more compelling narrative, having been dropped by her previous label in 2020 but still putting out music until she was finally able to release her debut album, “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess,” in late September of last year. Roan could also be embraced by alternative and rock voters due to her musical style. Plus, the theatricality of her persona makes her a pretty exciting artist that many voters, regardless of genre, might want to award. It’s worth noting that a win for Roan would mark the first Best New Artist victory by a lesbian, which could motivate queer voters across all genres, especially since a lot of her persona is centered around her queerness and is complemented by her drag aesthetic.

An equal case can be made for either artist, so what could be the deciding factor? It’s likely to come down to two things. First, there’s potential backlash against the idea that Carpenter, whose debut EP came out in 2014, counts as a new artist, especially given that all five of her previous studio albums have charted on the Billboard 200. This could end up hurting her if voters feel like she might be robbing a truly new artist of an opportunity to win.

The other, and perhaps most important, factor is campaigning. Both Roan and Carpenter seem to be appearing at key spots to maximize their visibility. Roan will likely appear on “Saturday Night Live,” which Carpenter already did, and Carpenter will probably do an NPR “Tiny Desk Concert,” which Roan already did. So in the end, their campaign stops might end up being similar. It’ll depend on who makes a bigger splash with their TV and online spots.

This Best New Artist race is already quite interesting, and we’ll see if later on we can get a clearer insight into who is ahead. However, at this point in the year, a Roan vs. Carpenter race looks quite close, and most likely will be a competitive, nail-biting race until the end.

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