If you’re a voting member in good standing of the Country Music Association, check your email today, Monday (July 8). You should find your nomination ballot to vote in the first round for the 58th annual CMA Awards.

For the rest of us, the countdown begins to what is always one of the year’s most entertaining awards shows.

This year, there’s particular suspense in several categories. Will Beyoncé receive CMA nominations for her Cowboy Carter album? Will Lainey Wilson become the first woman in more than 40 years to win back-to-back awards for entertainer of the year? Will Morgan Wallen win his first CMA Award since he was crowned new artist of the year four years ago?

We’ll take a look at those and other questions, but first, some details. The eligibility period for the 2024 CMA Awards is July 1, 2023 to June 30, 2024. That means such high-profile albums as Zach Bryan’s just-released The Great American Bar Scene and a pair of upcoming releases –Wilson’s Whirlwind and Post Malone’s F-1 Trillion – won’t be eligible until next year.

Voting for the nomination ballot opens today and closes Wednesday, July 17. A second ballot will be emailed to CMA members on Tuesday, Aug. 6. Voting for that ballot closes Tuesday, Aug. 20. The final nominees in each of 12 categories will be announced later this summer.

Winners will be determined in a third and final round of voting that extends from Tuesday, Oct. 1 through Tuesday, Oct. 29. The 58th annual CMA Awards will be held in Nashville in November. The CMA has yet to announce the show’s host. Luke Bryan has hosted the last three years, the last two in tandem with Peyton Manning.

Here are 11 storylines we’ll be following with particular interest this year.

Will Morgan Wallen Win His First CMA Award in Four Years?
Morgan Wallen accepts and award onstage during the The 54th Annual CMA Awards at Nashville’s Music City Center on Nov. 11, 2020 in Nashville, Tenn.
At the CMA Awards on Nov. 11, 2020, Morgan Wallen was crowned new artist of the year. Less than three months later, he was caught on video using a racial slur, an incident which almost certainly cost him some major awards. He hasn’t won at the CMAs since his new artist win nearly four years ago, though he has since received two nominations each for entertainer of the year, male vocalist of the year and album of the year. Will CMA voters be ready to embrace him now? This year, he’s a leading contender for entertainer of the year, male vocalist of the year, and single of the year and musical event of the year for Post Malone’s “I Had Some Help,” on which he is featured.

If Wallen wants CMA voters to see that he’s matured since 2020, he did himself no favors with his highly-publicized chair-throwing incident off the roof of Eric Church’s bar on April 7.

Will Beyoncé Get Some CMA Love?
Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter topped Billboard’s Top Country Albums chart for four weeks and appears to be a strong candidate for an album of the year nod. Beyoncé would the first Black woman to receive a CMA nod for album of the year as a lead artist. Only one Black man has been nominated in the category as a lead artist. That’s Charley Pride, who was nominated four times (without ever winning) – with Charley Pride Live and in Person (1969), Just Plain Charley (1970), Charley Pride Sings Heart Songs (1972) and There’s a Little Bit of Hank in Me (1980), the latter a tribute album to Hank Williams.

Note: Ten Black artists were featured on Rhythm, Country and Blues, a genre-blending Various Artists album which landed an album of the year nod in 1994. They were The Staple Singers, Al Green, B.B. King, Gladys Knight, Patti LaBelle, Sam Moore, Aaron Neville, The Pointer Sisters, Allen Toussaint and Natalie Cole.

Will Lainey Wilson Match Barbara Mandrell?
Lainey Wilson accepts the Entertainer of the Year award from Keith Urban onstage at The 57th Annual CMA Awards at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville on Nov. 8, 2023.
Lainey Wilson, 32, who won entertainer of the year last year, wasn’t even born the last time a woman won back-to-back awards for entertainer of the year. Barbara Mandrell achieved the feat in 1980-81. Taylor Swift is the only other woman to win twice in the category, but her wins in 2009 and 2011 weren’t consecutive. Could Wilson tie Mandrell’s record this year? Stay tuned.

Will Chris Stapleton Extend His Record?
Chris Stapleton has won male vocalist of the year a record seven times. Will he extend his record to eight wins? He’s far ahead of the pack in terms of most wins in the category. Runners-up, with five wins each, are Vince Gill, George Strait and Blake Shelton.

Stapleton holds another CMA record, though it’s probably one he would like to shed: He has amassed the most nominations for entertainer of the year (seven) without a win. Miranda Lambert and Carrie Underwood are currently tied for second place on the list of artists with the most nominations without a win (six).

Stapleton is also a leading candidate in the album of the year category with Starting Over. The release, which entered Top Country Albums at No. 1 in November, is vying to become his fifth consecutive studio album to be nominated in that category – his entire solo discography to date.

Will Zach Bryan Get His Due?
Last year, Bryan received his first CMA nomination – new artist of the year. (He lost to Jelly Roll.) Will Bryan step up to an album of the year nod for Zach Bryan and/or a single of the year nod? He has two strong candidates for the latter award: “I Remember Everything” (featuring Kacey Musgraves) from Zach Bryan and “Pink Skies,” from his new album The Great American Bar Scene.

Will Shaboozey Be Nominated for New Artist of the Year?
Shaboozey’s debut album, Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going, reached No. 2 on Top Country Albums. The multi-genre smash “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” has reached as No. 12 on Billboard’s Country Airplay chart, and is still climbing. Should Shaboozey win new artist of the year, he’d be the third Black artist to win in that category, following Darius Rucker (2009) and Jimmie Allen (2021).

Two other Black artists were nominated in that category (or the horizon award, as the award was known from it inception in 1981 through 2007). Mickey Guyton was nominated in 2021 (and lost to Allen). Ray Charles (yep, that Ray Charles) was nominated in 1985 (and lost to Sawyer Brown).

This requires some explanation: Charles had been a legend for decades by 1985, but the CMA allowed him to compete for the horizon award because he had a hit with the duets collection Friendship, which topped Billboard’s Top Country Albums chart and spawned a No. 1 hit on Hot Country Songs, “Seven Spanish Angels,” with Willie Nelson.

I’m not sure it made sense to allow a legend to compete for a new artist award (and take a nomination away from an actual new artist), but the CMA was probably trying to make up for the way the country music industry in 1962 didn’t embrace Charles’ groundbreaking album Modern Sounds in Country and Western Music. Incredibly, none of the songs from that album, including such classics as “I Can’t Stop Loving You” and “You Don’t Know Me,” made Billboard’s Hot Country Songs chart. By contrast, five songs from Friendship made the top 20. Even so, putting Charles up for a new artist award in 1985 was a reach.

Will Kacey Musgraves Regain Her CMA Mojo?
Kacey Musgraves’ Deeper Well entered Top Country Albums at No. 1 in March. If the album is nominated for album of the year, it will put the acclaimed singer back in the running for that marquee category after she missed the cut with her 2021 album, Star-Crossed. Before that miss, she was nominated with all three of her previous non-holiday studio albums, Same Trailer Different Park, Pageant Material and Golden Hour (which won).
Will Luke Combs Keep His Streak Alive?
Luke Combs’ Fathers & Sons entered Top Country Albums at No. 2 in June, unable to dislodge Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time from the top spot. It’s vying to become Combs’ fourth consecutive album to receive a CMA nod for album of the year, following What You See Is What You Get, Growin’ Up and Gettin’ Old. The first two of these albums won the award.

Will Old Dominion Reach Lucky No. 7?
Old Dominion has won vocal group of the year the last six years running. If they win again in November, they’ll become the only the second group to win seven or more times in that category, following The Statler Brothers, which won nine times from 1972-84. Moreover, Old Dominion would become the first group to ever win seven years in a row. The Statlers won six straight.

Could The War and Treaty Win Vocal Duo of the Year?
The War and Treaty were nominated for vocal duo of the year for the first time last year. That award has gone to either Brothers Osborne or Dan + Shay for the last eight years. If enough voters think it’s time to shake things up a little, The War and Treaty, comprised of Michael Trotter Jr. and Tanya Trotter, could become history-makers. They would be the first Black duo to win in that category — and the third married couple, following Ricky Skaggs and Sharon White (1987) and Thompson Square, comprised of Keifer and Shawna Thompson (2012).

Will Dolly Parton Get a Nod for Rockstar?
Dolly Parton’s Rockstar entered Top Country Albums at No. 1 in December. If it were to be nominated for album of the year, it would be her first contender in that category as a lead or co-lead artist since Trio, her 1987 collab with Linda Ronstadt and Emmylou Harris.

Parton’s album, recorded as a reaction to her induction into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, is competing for a nod with an album that pays tribute to a more traditional rock star, Tom Petty. Parton is featured on that album, Petty Country: A Country Music Celebration. She sings Petty’s 1985 song “Southern Accents.”

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